February Flashback: White House Budget Lays the Foundation for New Catastrophe
Friday, August 6th, 2010As Democrats prepare to let the Bush tax cuts expire, the budgetary ramifications of those cuts will be a topic I will return to as the debate continues. This is an article I wrote back in February for another website. However, it’s still very valid and I will continue to hammer the main points made in this piece over the next few months as elections approach.
Originally written February 2, 2010
After spending the last few weeks trying to bolster his reputation as a deficit hawk, President Obama destroyed any hope of fiscal sanity by releasing his $3.8 trillion 2010 budget proposal that will result in a $1.6 trillion deficit while also implementing a slew of tax hikes. Last week’s announcement that the economy grew by 5.7% last quarter coupled with the previous miniscule drop in the unemployment rate has increased the White House’s confidence that their excessive spending is restoring economic growth. Echoing the administration’s intentions to throw taxpayer dollars into the economy until it recovers, House minority whip James Clyburn told Fox News that “We’ve got to spend our way out of this recession, and I think economists know that.” However, economist Arthur Laffer, Ph.D. recently told his clients in his latest economic outlook that the economy is heading for a “train wreck” in 2011 that will make the last downturn look mild. According to his projections, the economy will experience a “false recovery” where GDP will grow around 4% in 2010 and unemployment could drop as low as 7%. But President Obama’s planned tax increases and unprecedented deficits will quickly reclaim any economic progress made this year. After 2010, Laffer predicts, “All the factors that will make 2010 (and have already made the last half of 2009) look so good will reverse direction, and 2011 will be a train wreck.” Chief cause for concern is Obama’s plan to allow the Bush tax cuts to expire while also implementing other new tax increases for businesses and wealthy individuals. From reading the president’s “Budget Message”, it’s clear that this administration either doesn’t understand the true effects of the 2003 Bush tax cuts or (what’s probably much more likely) is so ideologically blinded by social-engineering-wealth-redistribution schemes that they willfully misrepresent the true record. Whatever the reason, the president and his lackeys in Congress are laying the foundation for a monumental economic catastrophe.
We are already witnessing the beginnings of a false recovery like Laffer described. The administration was rewarded last week with the news that US GDP grew at a rate of 5.7% last quarter. However, Investor’s Business Daily explained that “most of the gain – nearly two-thirds, in fact – was a result of an end to the panicked inventory liquidation that took place at US firms last year. Remove that, and a different picture emerges – a 2.2% rise in GDP.” The same article points out that “most economists agree that GDP growth of 3% or so is needed to boost employment. That may in part explain why GDP could grow 2.2% in the third quarter and 5.7% in the fourth quarter, while businesses slashed 735,000 jobs over the same six months.” When GDP growth is looked at year-over-year, a whole new picture is drawn. IDB said, “By that measure, we barely grew – real GDP rose just 0.1% in the fourth quarter from last year, virtually flat. Worse, real nonresidential fixed investment – a proxy for business investment in future output – plunged 14.6% from last year. That’s a shocking vote of “no confidence” in Obamanomics by America’s entrepreneurs and businesses.” Even the recent drop in the unemployment rate from 10.2% to 10% wasn’t the positive event it was made out to be. Writing in American Spectator, financial journalist James Srodes said, “The recent headlined dip in the jobless rate turns out to have been caused by more than 50,000 already jobless people simply giving up and dropping out of the workforce. This has the statistically absurd result that the percentage of people deemed to be unsuccessfully seeking work is judged to have improved.” Obviously, there is plenty of reason to be wary, not celebratory, about the economy’s condition. The president’s budget proposal will only make a bad situation worse.
Seeing how the current “good news” isn’t all it’s being cracked up to be, Laffer’s concerns become more clear. As businesses and individuals react to looming tax increases, Laffer predicts “GDP growth in 2010 will be some 3 to 4% higher than it otherwise should be, thus green shoots. The transfer of income from 2011 to 2010 will not only make 2010 [economic growth] higher than it otherwise would be, it will also make 2011 growth 3 and 4% lower than it otherwise should be because people have shifted income out of 2011 into 2010.” What tax increases are expected to cause this disaster? “In 2010 the US will have a payroll tax rate increase, an estate tax increase, and income tax increases. There’s also a tax increase coming in 2010 on carried interest. This rate will rise from its current level of 15% to 35%, and then it will rise again in 2011.” Stanford economist John Cogan concurred with Laffer’s assessment of looming danger in Obama’s planned tax increases, especially in light of the unprecedented peace-time deficits this administration is proposing. “The primary sources of [deficit] risk come from uncertainty about US government economic policy. In the area of taxation, personal income taxes, especially those on savings and capital formation are set to rise substantially in a year,” Corgan told Human Events.
President Obama’s plans to raise taxes are not only ill-advised because the economy has not fully entered a recovery, but also because his analysis of the Bush tax cuts’ effects on the deficit are wildly false. In his “Budget Message”, Obama asserts that a large portion of the national debt is the “result of the failure to pay for two large tax cuts, primarily for the wealthiest Americans.” This claim willfully misrepresents both the true “costs” of the 2003 Bush tax cuts and their true effects on both the wealthy and middle class.
In their book, “The End of Prosperity”, authors Arthur Laffer, Stephen Moore, and Peter Tanous found, “From 2004 to 2007 federal tax revenue increased by an enormous $785 billion, the largest four-year increase in revenue in American history.” After the Bush tax cuts spurred economic growth that led to more jobs and increased corporate profits, personal and corporate income tax receipts rose 40% in the following three years. The largest gains in tax receipts from the Bush tax cuts came from the cuts in dividend and capital gains tax rates. When “The End of Prosperity” went to press in 2008, the latest data from the Congressional Budget Office reported a “70% increase in capital gains receipts and a 31% hike in dividend tax payments since 2003.” How could the Bush tax cuts have increased federal tax receipts by nearly $1 trillion and still increased the budget deficit?
President Obama’s assertion that the wealthy received disproportionate benefits from the Bush tax cuts is as implausible as his claims that they increased the deficit. When the amount of taxes collected under the Bush plan were compared to those paid under the previous system, it was evident that the Bush tax cuts shifted more of the federal income tax burden onto the wealthiest tax filers. The number of tax filers claiming over $1 million in taxable income rose from 181,000 to 354,000 from 2003 to 2005. Over that period, the total taxes paid by millionaire households “rose 107% in two years, to $273 billion from $132 billion.” The Bush tax cuts led to a thriving economy that almost doubled the number of millionaires in the nation while doubling the revenue collected from these filers. While the wealthiest were paying more, the lowest tax rate was lowered and child credits increased. The resulting tax rates made the tax system more progressive under the Bush cuts. The top 1% of earners paid more income taxes than the bottom 90% combined even though the bottom 90% earned three times the income of the top 1%.
However, as successful as the Bush tax cuts were in fostering economic growth and increasing revenue, they were not enough to offset the effects of the real deficit culprit – “drunken sailor spending.” Out-of-control spending out-paced federal revenues each year of the Bush administration. This trend increased further after 2006 when Democrats assumed control of Congress and the nation’s purse strings. (If you recall, President Obama was a senator in 2006 and he voted for every spending increase George W. Bush signed into law.) Excessive spending seems to be the only aspect of the Bush economic program that President B. Hussein Obama is not only dedicated to continuing but is taking to a whole new level. Unfortunately, as they continue their failed efforts to spend the nation back to prosperity, the administration is only laying the foundation for an even deeper economic downturn.




Gee, where have we heard anything like that? Apparently, the AFL-CIO sees the validity of arguments against confiscatory taxes when they’re incomes and benefits are targeted by the tax man. Too bad, it’s doubtful that Trumka or any other labor heads will apply this logic to the rest of us. However, we should congratulate Trumka for discovering the basic economic fact that tax money doesn’t magically appear out of thin air. It must be taken from somewhere in the private sector which means those funds taken by the government cannot go towards paying employees more or expanding their benefits. ACORN had a similar discovery a couple of years ago when they sued the state of California to keep from paying their employees the higher minimum wage that ACORN played an integral part in getting passed. ACORN explained that the higher wages would prevent them from hiring more workers and providing as many benefits. Just as the AFL-CIO’s revelation will probably work out, ACORN believed the minimum wage law that they pushed for affected them uniquely.



